I'm Back! - and buy Clorox

Sorry for the extended inactivity on Bull's Eye Market. I have been very busy. What is their to post in this bear market anyway!

I would like to come back with a suggestion: buy Clorox at 65. I will explain my suggestion in a separate post.

What? How could you tell us to buy in this possible double-dip recession?

Primarily, I would like to give my two cents about the market. First of all, you can not say a double-dip will happen because our current economy and market is similar to that of the 2008 recession. Many of the numbers are different. Just as examples, EPS growth, oil price, sales growth.

As per the downgrade of the S&P, Washington had a choice: $4T in cuts or downgrade. They chose the downgrade. This, to them, was better than the $4T in cuts. The downgrade was not a surprise to Washington, they chose their own fate. They must know how to deal with the repercussion.

Of course, a double-dip is very much a possibility. However, I don't recommend selling unless you can't hold up your money in the market for a year. Let's learn from the past. The market will always recover. Because a double-dip is anything but certain, hold. If anything, sell 15-25% of your assets.

I will also recommend you to buy, very conservatively, on Monday when you feel the market's at a low. Now, I understand what I am saying, and how hypocritical I must seem. Allow me to explain. If the double-dip doesn't happen, the market's at a huge bargain right now. The S&P is trading 12 times the estimated 2011 profits. So, get in on this bargain, but buy very conservatively.

Now, if the market does crash, wait for a good time to buy. Don't catch the axe while it's falling. If you can manage to buy aggressively when the markets down, or buy in increments while the market is falling, you are in for a huge upside after the recession.

I understand the fear of a recession. Do not succumb to fear, learn from the past. As long as you can have your money tied up, hold your positions or sell a very small portion. Buy very moderately on Monday, and incrementally as the market falls (if it falls). Hit That Bull's Eye!